On Forethought..........Fang Xiaoru

深虑论

方孝孺

虑天下者，常图其所难而忽其所易，备其所可畏而遗其所不疑。然而，祸常发于所忽之中，而乱常起于不足疑之事。岂其虑之未周欤？盖虑之所能及者，人事之宜然，而出于智力之所不及者，天道也。

当秦之世，而灭诸侯，一天下。而其心以为周之亡在乎诸侯之强耳，变封建而为郡县。方以为兵革不可复用，天子之位可以世守，而不知汉帝起陇亩之中，而卒亡秦之社稷。汉惩秦之孤立，于是大建庶孽而为诸侯，以为同姓之亲，可以相继而无变，而七国萌篡弑之谋。武、宣以后，稍削析之而分其势，以为无事矣，而王莽卒移汉祚。光武之惩哀、平，魏之惩汉，晋之惩魏，各惩其所由亡而为之备。而其亡也，盖出于所备之外。唐太宗闻武氏之杀其子孙，求人于疑似之际而除之，而武氏日侍其左右而不悟。宋太祖见五代方镇之足以制其君，尽释其兵权，使力弱而易制，而不知子孙卒困于敌国。此其人皆有出人之智、盖世之才，其于治乱存亡之几，思之详而备之审矣。虑切于此而祸兴于彼，终至乱亡者，何哉？盖智可以谋人，而不可以谋天。

良医之子，多死于病；良巫之子，多死于鬼。岂工于活人，而拙于谋子也哉？乃工于谋人，而拙于谋天也。古之圣人，知天下后世之变，非智虑之所能周，非法术之所能制，不敢肆其私谋诡计，而唯积至诚，用大德以结乎天心，使天眷其德，若慈母之保赤子而不忍释。故其子孙，虽有至愚不肖者足以亡国，而天卒不忍遽亡之。此虑之远者也。夫苟不能自结于天，而欲以区区之智笼络当世之务，而必后世之无危亡，此理之所必无者，而岂天道哉！

On Forethought

Fang Xiaoru

  Those who plan the state affairs often focus on the difficult and tough issues to the neglect of the easy ones, and guard against terrible eventualities while omit things about which they have no doubt at all. However, disasters often occur at moments of neglect, and disturbances often arise in the absence of doubt. Are such things not well thought out? As far as matters that human intelligence can harness, their final outcomes are not beyond expectation, and happenings beyond the scope of intelligence belong to the arrangements of Heaven.

  After the State of Qin wiped out the vassal states and unified the whole country, the First Emperor of Qin believed that the Zhou Dynasty’s downfall was attributable to the strength of the vassal states, so he changed the feudal system into the system of prefectures and counties, thinking that in this way wars and chaos would not recur, and the throne of the Son of Heaven could be handed down from generation to generation. However, he did not foresee that Emperor Gao of Han Dynasty rose up from the grass-roots and eventually overthrew the Qin Dynasty. In view of the helpless isolation of the Qin Dynasty, the Emperor of Han granted vassal states to his own brothers and nephews, thinking that they could support the imperial court without causing turbulence via the blood relationship with the same surname. The seven vassal states, however, still plotted regicidal conspiracy to usurp the throne. After the reigns of Emperor Wu and Emperor Xuan of the Han Dynasty, the central court slightly redivided the lands and weakened the power of the princes, thinking everything would be all right. However, Wang Mang, a relative of an empress dowager, unexpectedly seized the throne of the Han Dynasty. Liu Xiu, Emperor Guangwu, learned lessons from Emperor Ai and Emperor Ping; Cao Wei drew lessons from the Eastern Han, and Western Jin drew lessons from Wei, each learning lessons from the perishing of their predecessors and taking precautions, but the root causes of their own destruction were all outside their precautions. Emperor Taizong of Tang heard the rumor that people surnamed Wu would kill his descendants, so he sought out such suspected people and kill them all. Wu Zetian attended on him every day but he did not suspect her in the least. Emperor Taizu of the Song Dynasty saw that the provincial military governors could subdue the monarchs during the Five Dynasties, so he took back all their military power and made them weaker and easier to deal with. He did not foresee that his descendants would get into the trouble caused by enemy countries. Those monarchs all had outstanding wisdom and talents, and carefully considered the causes of good governance and riotous turbulence of the country, as well as making adequate preventive precautions. However, despite their focus on this side, ruinous disasters took place on the other side, and their dynasties inevitably perished. Why? Perhaps wisdom and intelligence could only help them consider human factors, but could not help them predict the arrangements of Heaven.

  Many sons of good doctors die of diseases, and many sons of wizards die from ghosts. Are doctors and wizards good at saving others and bad at saving their own children? It’s because they are good at planning for other people and bad at predicting the arrangements of Heaven! The sages of ancient times understood that the future changes of the country could not be fully considered with the wisdom of man, nor could they be harnessed by political means, so the monarchs did not dare to abuse dirty tricks and hanky-panky.They accumulated sincerity and moved the heart of Heaven with great virtues, so that Heaven would not forsake them considering their kindness to the people, in the same way loving mothers protect their newborn baby without abandoning them. Though some of the monarchs’ descendants were foolish and unvirtuous enough to cause destruction of the country, heaven did not have the heart to destroy it all at once. That was what we call the long-term consideration. If a monarch cannot win the heart of Heaven with his great virtues, but wants to take charge of all the affairs of the country against its future destruction with his insignificant wisdom, it is absolutely unreasonable, and it is also impossible for Heaven to make arrangements in this way!

Translated by Jin Deming